"Two candidates who love America"

What did Bill Clinton mean when he mentioned 'two candidates who love America'?

You may have seen this video, in which Bill talks about an election between 'two candidates who love America'. There's been some debate about this, and we thought the real reasons behind the statement would emerge from somewhere. Since they haven't, and since we're seeing some questions about it, we'll take it on.

No one (that we've seen, at least) has grasped the import of Bill Clinton's recent, subtle support of John McCain. It's not part of any strategy to win the nomination for Hillary. The Clintons are resigned to the inevitability of Hillary's exit.

No, the Clintons are now after something else entirely.

HuffPo nearly nails it (index)

HuffPo nearly stumbled on the truth of all this. They were hot on the trail:

"Recently on the campaign, the former president has made remarks that have been a bit unpredictable. Days ago, he complimented McCain as bipartisan, a war hero, and a tough general election foe. No "but"s included."

Yes, Clinton's remarks at the Cary Senior Center were part of a recent pattern. But then HuffPo scribe Sam Stein gets thrown off the scent by these earlier Clinton remarks:

"Days before that, he was touting a Sen. Hillary Clinton-Obama pairing as an electoral "dream ticket," even though his wife's own campaign was making the case that Obama was not ready to serve as commander-in-chief."

These very separate sets of remarks were both trial balloons, and different means to the same end: To maximize Hillary's political position when she (inevitably) exits the race.

Obviously, the ploy to position Hill for a VP slot (by offering exactly that to Obama, and touting it as an 'unbeatable' situation) was an embarrassing failure. It is widely, but erroneously, believed that the Clintons hoped they could somehow bluff Obama into stepping aside and settling for a VP slot. This is extremely unlikely, since both sides knew what a weak hand the Clintons held. No - the truth is that the Clintons could not come out and say that HILLARY would be an ideal VP, since that would be a glaring admission of weakness. The point of the trial balloon was not 'Obama as VP', but rather to seek footing for the notion that Hillary should be offered the VP slot at this time, on the basis that she and Obama would be 'unbeatable'. The idea (and quite possibly the 'deal' the Clintons offered Obama behind the scenes) was for Obama to offer Hillary the VP slot. Hillary, in order to 'heal' the party (rather than because she was, in fact, destined to lose), would magnanimously accept, and of course exit the race on the highest note possible.

In any event, this awkward attempt was easily brushed off, and the press had a bit of a laugh, even if they did not really understand what was unfolding before their eyes.

That misbegotten exit strategy is quite dead, and will rise no more. The Clintons have now launched a new, and far more treacherous, exit strategy.

Recapping Hillary's situation (index)

Before going forward, we must back up a bit. Many of you know them already, but bear with us while we review the circumstances surrounding Bill's recent statements concerning McCain. This is the only way to understand their purpose.

(If you are an inveterate political reader, know all the background, and wish to simply cut to the chase, click here now, you know-it-all.)

At this point, Hillary's own campaign (and most honest observers) admit the race is essentially over. Obama has the numbers, and would need to (a) lose very badly in the remaining states (unlikely, seeing as Clinton has won only a few states so far - and that was when she was in a far stronger position) or (b) persuade many superdelegates to flip their allegiance. (That is unlikely but possible - but such a flip would shred the Democratic Party. The black vote would almost certainly walk out the door, and Hillary would be far too wounded to defeat McCain.)

Basically, Hillary cannot win her party's nomination. But the public by and large cannot grasp this, because the evidence of their eyes tells them otherwise. They see that she clearly is continuing to campaign - and everyone knows how costly that is. In fact, her campaign is in debt, and she is loaning it money. With her own money on the line, most people (understandably) conclude that she must feel she has a chance.

Furthermore, much of the press is reporting on the campaign as if the outcome of the race is still in doubt. The public reasons, why would they report on Hillary's campaign at all, if the race were over?

Why is Hillary running, if she knows she cannot win? Why is the media acting as if the race is still undecided, if the outcome is already known? And what does all this have to do with Bill's recent statements?

A quick reminder of how media works (or doesn't) (index)

The reason much of the media is acting as if there is still a race going on is because that makes for a better story. Remember - the media is not necessarily after the truth. Truth, in fact, often gets in the way of what the media is really after - which is a story. 'A story' and 'truth' are rarely one and the same thing. A journalist might (should) be concerned that his/her story not conflict with the truth (mostly because that could make them look bad), but that does not necessarily mean that their story is the truth.

Journalists are under constant pressure from their employers for readers and ratings. Jobs are very much on the line these days, and jobs in journalism are hard to come by. Hillary's people, who want to keep the campaign going, have an unspoken understanding with many in the media: They will act as if there is still a chance to win, if the press will do the same.

This arrangement does not actually require much compromise from the media. They can even ask Clinton advisers "Isn't the race really over?", to which they can respond, "Certainly not!" In that way, the press can say they did their job - they got their story. In fact, there is only one thing the press can NOT do: They cannot ignore the campaign. But of course, it is not in the media's best interest to ignore the campaign because, after all, they have a media channel to fill, every day. They cannot just sit on their hands until after the Democratic convention.

The media isn't actually lying. There is campaign activity, and they are reporting it. It does not have to be their job, they reason, to decide whether it is foolish or wrong to continue to campaign. So they leave that issue alone. (And it is precisely because they have not asked WHY Hillary continues to campaign that they have missed the bigger story we are covering here today.)

Of course, not ALL the media is compromised. Some have been very straightforward in pointing out Hillary's hopeless situation.

Why does Hillary keep running? (index)

That leads us to the next question: Why does Hillary continue to run, spending her own money to campaign, when she cannot in fact win? There is one overriding reason:

In politics, you have power only as long as you remain in the game. As long as Hillary is in the race, she has the power to influence what Obama says and does. Once she exits the race, her influence diminishes dramatically. 

Hillary's options (index)

Let's consider Hillary's options once she drops out of the race. She can:

• Refuse to support Obama against McCain, with Obama going on to win. This leaves her at the rear of the Democratic power line, behind everyone who supported him (and are promised favors). 

• Refuse to support Obama against McCain, with McCain going on to win. Same outcome for Hillary, except that she is even MORE of a pariah among Democrats, since it will be said that they might have won had she come through and 'not been selfish'.

• Cross party lines to support McCain, with McCain going on to lose. Again, this makes her a Democratic Party pariah.

• Cross party lines to support McCain, with McCain going on to win. She may gain some support among Republicans, but at the cost of burning all her Dem Party bridges. (Which she had been building since Bill was Governor of Arkansas.) Even if the Clintons were willing to switch parties (and assuming Republicans would want them), this is not an option.

In fact, none of these options are appealing for Hillary. She knows full well the second-class status the also-ran is relegated to, and the Clintons have held the limelight for too long to relinquish it now. The only viable (if not acceptable) option for Hillary is to support Obama. But since Obama knows that, and knows he can spend her into the ground if he has to, she has very little leverage with which to negotiate.

What can Hillary do to increase her bargaining power? (index)

What she can do, is exactly what she is doing: She is staying in the race, even at the personal cost of financing it herself. Every day she remains in the race, Obama has to run against her rather than (or, in addition to) McCain. That means, right now, that Obama has to speak on issues other than those McCain might make him confront. It also means that, every single day, the Clintons may find a new Obama weakness for McCain to exploit at some point.

Obama is expending money and resources fighting a candidate who would simply go away if he struck the right deal with her. Right now, though, her price is higher than it would be later. Obama knows he will eventually win the nomination, and when he does, she will have no more leverage. She could threaten to sit on her hands, or to support McCain, but Obama's camp knows she really cannot use those options.

Hillary cannot come out in support of John McCain. But perhaps her husband can.

"Two candidates who love America" (index)

Bill Clinton can cross over and support McCain, in many subtle ways. He can undermine the Democrats by taking away what had long been a potent force in that party - himself. The Democrats would lose his proven ability to draw a crowd, raise money, and win votes. And this is the leverage the Clintons are threatening to use against Obama right now. This is the reason for Bill's recent pro-McCain statements.

Bill's statement about "two candidates who love America" was a trial balloon, as were his other statements subtly endorsing McCain. Clinton's advisers wanted to see how that vague endorsement of McCain went over with the media, the public, and with McCain himself.

It was also a warning shot over the bow of the SS Obama, to let him know that Hillary STILL has options, and that they are options few (if any) also-rans in political history have ever enjoyed.

This is a difficult strategy, and it can easily backfire, but the Clintons realistically have little to lose by trying it. It is still very much in the experimental stage and will be tweaked along the way. The razor-sharp Obama campaign, which by now has been clandestinely approached by the Clintons, have been warned what game is afoot and are determined to send a counter-message that this will not work:

"Tony McPeak, a retired Air Force general and current co-chair of Obama's presidential campaign, compared former President Bill Clinton to Joseph McCarthy Friday in response to comments Clinton made earlier in the day that appeared to question Obama's patriotism.

"It sounds more like McCarthy," McPeak said. "I grew up, I was going to college when Joe McCarthy was accusing good Americans of being traitors, so I've had enough of it."

And, in rapid succession, another top Obama official pursued Clinton's remarks in a similar way.

You'll recall that, in his speech and in recent weeks, Obama has said that he wanted to put this sort of infighting to rest. Consider the out-of-character and extreme nature (invoking McCarthy) of the Obama response. Why has his campaign responded so strongly and rapidly to Clinton's 'offhand' remarks, which, in context, seem relatively insignificant? It is because they are not offhand at all, but part of a calculated threat. Like a Sopranos mobster strolling through your restaurant saying, 'nice place you have here, shame if it caught fire', the Clintons have put Obama on notice that 'sometimes things just go wrong' with nice Presidential campaigns. This political extortion is something Obama's people cannot take lying down. They are responding quickly and forcefully now, to show they will not be intimidated and will not deal with the Clintons from a position of weakness. Their marching orders are to nip this in the bud.

Bill, slick actor that he is, can do what his wife cannot - offer aid and comfort to the enemy during the general election - and get away with it.

There are many possible approaches, and the Clintons have no doubt considered them all.

Bill can play the diplomatic, retired ex-President who only returned to public life out of duty to his wife. Now, with his wife out of the running, he will tell us he believes that, as an ex-president, he should remain above the fray. 'This is the right thing to do', he will tell us, 'for the American people'. His statement, you will recall, sets him up for this strategy, with its complaint about all the 'noise and distractions' surrounding the campaign. (This was all well-calculated, there was nothing offhand about it.)

Of course, Bill may on occasion remark that John McCain loves America, and that he is 'sure' Obama does 'as well'. He may on occasion play the protective, loving husband, whose wife was savaged by a ruthless, woman-hating Obama campaign. This will give him license to be 'irked' about Obama. He may say things like, 'Well, I wouldn't call his followers a cult, exactly...'

MSNBC has already begun to understand that this sort of thing is likely to continue throughout. HuffPo's Stein remarks:

"MSNBC, for example, was quick to suggest that the former president was implying there were doubts about Obama's patriotism, and that those doubts would play a role in the general election. Which seems, on its face, hardly a stretch."

What neither Stein nor MSNBC has grasped, however, is that Bill Clinton has threatened to fan these flames himself.

And of course, as someone who has done his service and retired from politics, Bill will tell us he is not interested in the arduous grind of fundraising and campaigning. He has done more of that than he wanted, only out of duty to his wife, you see. He will quip that he is not married to Obama, and the press will have a chuckle. Oh, Hillary will support Obama, as a good Democrat should. Count on that, he will say. But as for himself, he is retired. He's sure you'll understand. (The press will portray this as a 'household divided'. Makes a good story.)

How media has missed the real story so far (index)

Some pundits have called the statement a swipe at Obama's 'patriotism'. These pundits have missed the point. Attacking Obama's 'patriotism' hasn't done the Clintons any good up until now. The Clintons realize they have lost the race, and the statement was part of a new strategy designed not to defeat Obama, but to demonstrate to him what he could face post-nomination.

The pundits have failed to discern the meaning in the pattern of Clinton's recent subtle support of McCain, which of means the strategy was successful in that regard. It's supposed to be undetectable at this stage. (It's amazing, though, that the media could view statements by as masterful a politician as Clinton as happenstance rather than part of a strategy.) Bill's statement was a carefully-staged device allowing him to say (without directly saying) not that Obama (who was really never alluded to) does not love America, but that John McCain DOES. It was a warning to let the Obama camp know that he might just keep on saying things like that, remaining a thorn in Obama's side and a dangerously loose cannon for the remainder of the race.

Unless, of course, they can cut a deal.

Post index:

• HuffPo nearly nails it
• Recapping Hillary's situation
• A quick reminder of how media works
• Why does Hillary keep running?
• Hillary's options
• What can Hillary do to increase her bargaining power?
• "Two candidates who love America"
• How media has missed the real story so far

AND: Harry Reid now says "things are being done" to end the campaign before the convention. We have no doubt. Obama called the Clintons' bluff, which didn't work anywhere near as well as they'd hoped. Billary is also bleeding badly on other fronts. Bill's popularity ratings were already in the toilet before any of this happened. They may be ready to capitulate now.

MORE: "The Tonya Harding option" is the scenario in which the Clintons must destroy Obama. That is exactly what they have threatened him with - a bloody fight, scorched earth. Either Obama deals with the Clintons or they will raise hell.

She is now threatening to put pressure in delegates to switch, as well. This is a deadly serious power struggle.

STILL MORE: How Hillary's campaign goons threaten the press.

AND: See all Hillary Clinton posts.