Human-to-human avian flu variant reported
Dan Riehl reports that a human-to-human avian flu variant has been reported in Thailand and Vietnam. If so, millions will die as the virus runs its course. In his link to Dan, Glenn Reynolds (who coincidentally also linked us this past week) says, 'Don't panic yet.' Personally, when someone says that we tend to panic.
Anyway, Dan has a cluster of up-to-the-minute information. A bit more here. And here's a previous report we posted, with some links worth checking out.
Categories: Avian+flu
posted by Mister Snitch! at 6:34 PM
2 Comments:
I have heard that most developed countries have little to fear, as while we may be unable to cure the flu, it can be treated pretty effectively.
Is that an inaccurate assessment?
It's probably more accurate to say that no one really knows what's about to happen.
This is what •I• understand to be true:
1) The worst-scenario stories comparing this outbreak with the "Black Plague" and other major flu outbreaks won't happen. At one time flu killed because it brought down the immune system, making the sufferer vulnerable to other threats (TB, pneumonia). This is less of a concern today becauae even though we can't prevent the virus, we can diagnose and treat the second wave of illnesses that can follow.
2) We can't prevent this outbreak from happening. Some are arguing as to whether certain parties are to blame (typically Bush & the drug companies). Bottom line is, everyone who oughta know (WHO, the drug companies) says it's too late to turn out the quantities of vaccine that would be needed to innocculate everyone.
3) Those most at risk will probably get vaccinated, if for no other reason than the administration and the drug companies don't want to be seen as fiddling while Rome burns. Everyone is thinking about Fema right now. Whether getting a shot is a good idea or not is hotly debated in some circles.
4) Any developed country has advantages in treating any disease, if for no other reason than we have the basics. Like roads to get people medicines they need, vehicles to transport them, gasoline to run them, communications to let doctors know where they are needed, and trained staff. In many parts of the world, none of these things can be taken for granted. (I read some years ago about a Merck program to treat malaria in Africa. First thing they had to do was build a road to get stuff where it needed to go. Then they had to drain ditches - otherwise the 'cure' would end as soon as the drugs ran out. It was an infrastructural nightmare.)
Does that mean developed nations have "little" to fear? I don't know. Define "little". Probably this won't destroy the country, which has this year survived some major natural disasters and an expensive war. If enough people die, housing prices may come down (if you want to look at the morbid side of things).
One wild-card factor is that the "developed" nations (the US and Europe) are also OLDER nations, and therefore more vulnerable to an outbreak of disease.
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