Charlie Rose interviews the Avian Flu, or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the pandemic

In deciding how to feel about the Avian Flu, we've settled on alarm combined with morbid acceptance. It's like realizing the house is surrounded by Zombies and they've cut off the phone liines. Hey, plague happens.

We'd been tracking the avian flu meme on Instapundit and other sources. We've seen Prof. Reynolds' evolution from medium concern ("I hope we'll dodge this bullet"), to top-of-mind concern ("I'm pretty worried"), to doomsday scenarios ("I don't think the world's public health system is up to dealing with a pandemic." "potential economic disaster" "individuals are stockpiling the once little-used antiviral as a hedge against a possible flu pandemic" ) to blame ("According to the White House, we're not ready for an avian flu pandemic. Well, we'd better be working on that, hadn't we?"), to get-a-grip ("Don't panic. Yet, anyway." "Calm down this flu hysteria just a bit." ).

We have seen World Health Organization experts interviewed on Charlie Rose, (discussed here, here, here, and here) telling us there's reason for attention and concern, but no need to panic. (Has there ever been a situation in which 'experts' tell the public to panic? Has anyone ever heard an elected official say, 'Some hysteria, rioting and looting would really be in order right about now'? Another aside: The Rose interview was quite nicely sent up by McSweeney's.)

Avian flu has now spread to pigs, which means humans are next in line. We're reminded of the Swine Flu scare of 1976 (noted here, here, and here in Wikipedia). In that instance, the cure was worse than the disease, and then-Preseident Gerald Ford was widely ridiculed. (Of course, Ford was one of our more widely ridiculed presidents to begin with, but that's another story.)

At the time, it was thought irresponsible not to prepare for what might have been (but wasn't) a massive pandemic. Prof. Reynolds took this same approach at first, but more recently pulled back (possibly remembering the Ford fiasco). Reynolds also remembered reading that during the oft-cited 1918 Flu pandemic, many of the nearly 50 million who died (a much larger percentage of the world's population than today) actually did so because inactive Tuberculosis infections became active. (Under stress from the flu virus, many people's immune systems could not keep their TB under check.) We Googled many references confirming this. Since far fewer people suffer from TB today than did in the past, this suggests fewer deaths from flu outbreaks.

Other reassuring news items have emerged. The the 1918 virus was actually recreated for study recently. (Such a feat was pure sci-fi in 1976 or earlier, and not possible until after the turn of the millenium.)

Countering such good news is this report, telling us that this particular virus is ten times more potent than ordinary flu. In addition, there is no immunity to this new strain.

Confused? Why shouldn't you be. Nature tells us that we've run out of time to perpare (which one commenter on Rose's show also mentioned). 'Sally O'Reilly' has written a fictional (so far) Avian Flu diary beginning next month ("the World Health Organization has declared a full-scale pandemic influenza alert") and concluding in May 2006 ("The pandemic was declared over today... the cost is hundreds of billions of dollars more than it would have been had we tackled avian flu in Asia in the first place, and invested in flu research.")

This blog is dedicated to breaking news on the Avian Flu. We prescribe regular doses of it. The only way to know if this winter will resemble 1918 or 1976 for you, personally, is to maintain a healthy lifestyle (we believe in wheatgrass juice ourselves, but mind this warning), follow the usual common sense precautions (wash your hands a lot), and stay informed.

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Categories: Avian+flu